Rafe Furst - The Emergent Fool

The Emergent Fool

Sunlight vs. Vitamin D...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Cancer, Causality, Complexity, Epidemiology, Health, Nutrition, Obesity, Science 2.0 on 11 13th, 2010 | View Comments

[This is part 3 of Epidemiology vs. Etiology] You may have heard there is an epidemic of low vitamin D levels in the U.S. An estimated 60% of Americans are at a level that has been correlated with increased risk of nearly all chronic diseases, including cancer, heart disease, diabetes, autoimmune diseases,...

“Freudian Value Semiotics”...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Invisible Etiology, Models, Psychology, Visualization on 11 13th, 2010 | View Comments

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Medicine 2.0...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Causality, Epidemiology, Invisible Etiology, Mathematics, Nutrition, Psychology, Science 2.0, Socio-technical systems on 11 4th, 2010 | View Comments

Kim Scheinberg sent me a great article from The Atlantic that relates to my multi-thread rant on epidemiology. Since the article speaks for itself, I’m just quoting points I think are salient. The only words below that are not a direct quote are the headlines (i.e. “Did you know?”)....

Epidemiology vs. Etiology...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Epidemiology, Epistemology, Invisible Etiology, Limits of Knowledge, Models, Nutrition, Science 2.0 on 10 22nd, 2010 | View Comments

Over the last several years I’ve been digging into the science of cancer and systems biology, while at the same time looking at the epidemiology of disease and nutrition. And the more I learn, the more I’m convinced that there’s a gap that our scientific tools and methodologies cannot...

A1 vs. A2 Milk...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Causality, Epidemiology, Health, Invisible Etiology, Nutrition, Science on 10 22nd, 2010 | View Comments

Large scale epidemiological studies have linked casein (a cow’s milk protein) to autoimmune disease and heart disease (see The China Study). I just ran across the following twist on this theme which purports to explain a mechanism: a genetic mutation many years ago in domesticated cows transformed...

The Apprentice: Jasmine Stine...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Point of Order, Social Capital, Social Entrepreneurship on 10 14th, 2010 | View Comments

I’d like to welcome Jasmine as my new Apprentice. (You can learn more about her here and here). I’d also like to thank everyone who threw their hat in the ring and expressed interest in “accelerating possibilities,” as well as those who offered words of endorsement for them....

Will You Die From Cancer?...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Cancer, Nutrition, Obesity, Science 2.0, TED on 10 1st, 2010 | View Comments

Use the arrows that appear if you hover over the bottom right of the Prezi. You may want to expand to full screen first. All feedback welcome. If you like this, what subject would you like to see addressed next using...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Agency, Cognition, Dualism, Epistemology, Interconnectedness, Science 2.0, Superorganism on 08 31st, 2010 | View Comments

The wind was flapping a temple flag. Two monks were arguing about it. One said the flag was moving; the other said the wind was moving. Arguing back and forth they could come to no agreement. The Sixth Patriarch said, “It is neither the wind nor the flag that is moving. It is your mind that is...

The Apprentice, Round 2...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Point of Order on 08 17th, 2010 | View Comments

I have been overwhelmed by the quality of applicants for the apprenticeship! In order to give both you and me a better idea of the fit (which is just as important as your personal skillz) I have five projects for you to complete. To be true to the nature of the job — and so I can learn what I need to...

The Apprentice...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Point of Order on 07 31st, 2010 | View Comments

I’m looking for a budding superstar to be my apprentice. Someone who is eager to change the world but doesn’t exactly know how they are going to do it. At first you will be my shadow, learning everything I know. As soon as possible, you will take on the role of “COO” managing...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Epistemology, Models, Science 2.0 on 06 26th, 2010 | View Comments

What fundamental truths exist in the universe? This question, perhaps above all, is the basis for scientific inquiry. Yet we rarely ask it in this way and we rarely step back to the very basic assumptions we hold about the possible form of answer we might expect. For instance, is matter fundamental? ...

The Safety Net...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Adjacent Possible, Dualism, Infinity, Psychology, Scarcity / Abundance, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Stability on 05 17th, 2010 | View Comments

The following story is true, I’ve just changed the names and told it in parable form. The material numbers and circumstances are roughly accurate, and Alice is a friend of mine who may tell the story herself on video here soon… A True Story Alice was feeling particularly poor at a certain time...

Entanglement...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Causality, Cognition, Dualism, Epistemology, Interconnectedness, Invisible Etiology, Levels, Science 2.0 on 04 22nd, 2010 | View Comments

Daniel asks, Does the Mind Influence Physical Processes? Proof: our mind sets out to modify our environment in particular ways (i.e. set goals); then we act in ways consistent with that intention; more often than chance, our environment changes in those intended ways (i.e. goals are achieved). This is a...

Towards an Economy of Abundance...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Creativity, Economics, Infinity, Scarcity / Abundance, Social Capital on 04 4th, 2010 | View Comments

In A World of Goodies, I tried to explore the implications of creating a currency based not upon scarcity but on abundance. The concepts in that piece were only half-baked and I’d like to bake them a bit more here. I’m hoping you will help. The first task is to make the sharp distinction...

Project Runway...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Autocatalysis, Crowdsourcing, Investing, Social Capital on 03 27th, 2010 | View Comments

I meet a lot of social entrepreneurs who are just starting out and have the following dilemma. They are full of energy and creativity, but they don’t have a single tangible project or venture yet that they feel they can commit to. What they need is the time and freedom to explore the possibilities,...

The Most Important TV Show in America...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Economics, Education, Epidemiology, Happiness, Health, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Nutrition, Obesity, TED on 03 26th, 2010 | View Comments

Remember Jamie Oliver’s TED Prize Wish? Well tonight is the prime time season premiere of his Food Revolution show on ABC. The Huffington Post called Undercover Boss the most subversive show in America, and I can’t disagree. But in terms of importance to the future of America (and by...

Help Wanted: Social Capital Uncontractor...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Adjacent Possible, Management, Social Capital, Social Entrepreneurship on 03 12th, 2010 | View Comments

Are you struggling to pay for your food/home/whatever, or do you know someone who is? If you can convince someone you are a superstar, there’s a way out. But if you are having trouble making that case, then maybe you’d consider becoming a Social Capital Uncontractor. What’s that, you...

The Innovation Summit...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Education on 03 12th, 2010 | View Comments

My new favorite worldchanger is the Spirit of Innovation Awards. In short, high school students from around the country solve real-world problems and compete for awards and opportunities (like access to venture capital and mentorship). Here’s an example: I am working with founder Nancy Conrad...

Troubling Statistics...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Adjacent Possible, Interconnectedness, Science 2.0 on 03 12th, 2010 | View Comments

In his eloquent article, Breaking the Galilean Spell (worth reading in its entirety), Stuart Kauffman has given me the words to finally be able to articulate the uneasiness I feel about statistical reasoning in an increasingly interconnected world: …[Can] we make probability statements about the...

The Adjacent Possible...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Asymmetry, Autocatalysis, Causality, Cognition, Cooperation, Creativity, Interconnectedness, Non-linearity, Scarcity / Abundance, Science 2.0, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Visualization on 03 11th, 2010 | View Comments

Stuart Kauffman has a concept called the Adjacent Possible which I find incredibly useful in understanding the world. Simply put, if you think of the space of possibilities from the present moment forward and just concentrate on those that are achievable today — adjacent to the present moment...

Overcoming Bias...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Science 2.0 on 03 10th, 2010 | View Comments

The title of this post is ironic. What is science/truth/knowledge if not picking one story over another, in other words, the creation of bias? Hopefully the bias we create is useful and allows us to predict and create a future that is better (in some agreed upon sense) than the past. To get to...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Cognition, Creativity, Dualism, Epistemology, Invisible Etiology, Language, Science, Science 2.0 on 03 7th, 2010 | View Comments

I liken cognition to a hill-climbing search on the landscape of theories/models/maps that explain/predict reality. It’s easy to get stuck on peaks of local maximality. Injecting randomness creates a sort of Boltzmann machine of the mind and increases my chances of finding higher peaks. But I have...

$100,000 Reward: Y Prize...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Alternative Institutions, Crowdsourcing, Incentives, Innovation, Investing, Social Entrepreneurship on 03 3rd, 2010 | View Comments

Inspired by the X Prize, Y Combinator’s “Startup Ideas We’d Like to Fund” and Kickstarter, I am offering a $100K prize in three parts: $10K for Crowdsourced X Prizes Platform Allows anyone to offer a cash prize for achieving a goal they want achieved Allows anyone to pledge...

Why Falsifiability is Insufficient for S...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Cognition, Creativity, Dualism, Epistemology, Evolution, Limits of Knowledge, Models, Science, Science 2.0 on 02 26th, 2010 | View Comments

In my post about The Process it turns out that I stepped on a pedagogical minefield when using describing the Anthropic Principle (AP). Two preeminent physicists had a very public argument a while ago in which one called the AP unscientific because it’s unfalsifiable. I will return to that in a...

Posted by Rafe Furst in Asymmetry, Causality, Complexity, Computation, Cooperation, Dualism, Emergence, Epistemology, Infinity, Interconnectedness, Invisible Etiology, Limits of Knowledge, Mathematics, Models, Networks, Science, Science 2.0, Symmetry on 02 24th, 2010 | View Comments

Imagine a multiverse, infinitely infinite. There’s just infinity. Or if you prefer, nothing. There’s no space, no time, no matter, no energy. There’s no structure whatsoever, and nothing “in” any of the universes that make up the multiverse. it’s not even clear...

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